As the Blair Turns
The British PM's adventures as soap opera
by Nicola Mitchell

August 3, 2003 -- NEW YORK (apj.us) -- I often compare the goings on in both US and UK politics to some kind of soap opera with far fetched plot lines and complicated sub-text, but I don't even think a soap writer could have come up with a plot as gripping as the one that has been raging on both sides of the Atlantic these past two weeks. If they could, it surely would be an Emmy-worthy effort.

As with any good soap opera, you need a short recap at the beginning to refresh your memory as to the complicated twists and turns that took place in previous episodes, and in the US/UK drama that would go a little something like this:

The Blair government, and in particular Blair's communications director Alastair Campbell, have been at war with the BBC for months over allegations of 'sexed up' documents regarding Iraq's weapons capabilities. It was claimed, first in private and then in public, that a certain David Kelly, a Ministry of Defence official had been the BBC's source on which it based the claims pointed at Campbell.

But then things took a serious turn. In a chilling echo of Vince Foster and the Clinton White House years earlier, two weeks after Kelly's name became public property his body was discovered in woodland near his home after he apparently crumbled under the pressure and committed suicide.

This sad development in the plot was never going to come at a good time for Blair, but the fact that it coincided with his speech to Congress at the State of Union, a move which would further cement his relationship with Bush, the very thing that got him into this mess in the first place, that looked terrible.

So our prime minister now finds himself battling to keep his job once again. It is no secret that there are those within his own government who continue to plot against him with hopes of putting the current chancellor Gordon Brown in his place. Blair is vulnerable now, that is certain, but he is a leader in uncharted territory -- a Labour leader running a second term in office, something we have never seen before in the UK.

Moreover, despite the haters within his own party, his approval ratings remain high for a prime minister in this stage of his career and like those who opposed Clinton, this is what those who deride him despise the most.

And while we're on the subject of Blair's speech to Congress, we might as well sum up what the reaction has been to it.

Whatever the reason for it having taken place, there is little doubt that this was a truly historic occasion in both UK and US politics, something which many seem to have forgotten in their rush to denounce the prime minister. But the problem for Blair was that his speech had to cater to two very different audiences: Americans who praise him for standing up to the rest of Europe and showing solidarity with Bush, and Britons who see his relationship with Dubya as a dangerous distraction.

In the UK his speech received mixed reviews. He was either criticized for not being forceful enough, while others praised him for addressing what many see as America's faults by outlining a roadmap for peace in the Middle East and also encouraging the US to take issues that Europe holds dear such as climate change and the role of the UN more seriously.

But it was his "History will forgive us" comment that led many of his harshest critics to rally against him, seeing his remarks as a clear sign that both he and Bush have known all along that there were no weapons of mass destruction to be found.

So it's another fine mess that Bush has landed Blair in -- but with his approval ratings still high in the US, maybe he should consider applying for the job that is opening up over here in November 2004.

I believe he has much more experience than the present holder of the position.