May 29, 2003 - NEW YORK (apj.us) -- That's right, folks.

Although summer 2003 is imminent, Democratic hopefuls for the 2004 presidential election are running hard -- and perhaps wisely -- to create a "delicious semantic differential" between themselves and their Democrat opponents in preparation for a later battle with George W. Bush.

It is already primary season across America.

For Democrats, this is a two stage process.

First, each candidate has to stand out among the pack of other Democrats who have thus far timidly offered themselves as a better choice than the President.

Then, he or she will have to prove to the voters that his or her brand of the presidency is tastier than the current.

All this must be accomplished in the seventeen months left before Election Day 2004, when perhaps fifty percent of us will go to the polls and vote on what promises to be a referendum on the Bush Administration -- a show of hands to which most Republican in the nation are harnessed, one way or another.

Just what is a semantic differential?

Fundamentally, it measures a "difference or distinction in meanings."

In politics, however, it also means a divergence or distinction in reputation or character between similar, but not the same, candidates.

The Columbia Guide to Standard American English Language uses this example:

the plurals of cherub: cherubs, "cute, chubby, babylike angels" (as in Dick Cheney), and cherubim - "fearsome, powerful, eight-foot angels" (as in Osama bin Laden).

Or, how about "secret" and "secrete" -- perhaps more apt during this presidential cycle.

These are to some extent like homophones. For example: "lead" and "lead", the first meaning "to conduct" and the second, a metal; "sore" and "soar"; and finally "gore" as in the tapered piece of cloth in a skirt, "gore" as in blood and guts, or "Gore" as in winning yet losing presidential candidate -- a candidate "gored" for certain.

Thus, in a way, presidential contenders are "highbred semantic differential-seeking homophones" -- especially the Democrats, who have yet to distinguish themselves, semantically, from President George W. Bush.

Let us not forget the word "delicious."

Yes, the semantic differential must be delicious -- delicious enough to unseat an incumbent president with more than six in ten voters today approving of the job he is doing.

I use the word "delicious" instead of, say, "palatable" because at this early juncture, is seems the Democratic Party must offer not merely an edible candidate, but a delectable candidate -- different, and in a very positive way, than the man currently occupying the White House.

This is essentially all you have to know about politics to pick the winner: he or she has to be
(1) different from the others;
(2) perceived to be different by the voter;
(2) different in a manner superior to the competitors -- good enough to garner fifty percent, plus one vote of the total votes cast.

... well, maybe not anymore -- as we saw in 2000. Perhaps I should restate that as fifty percent, plus one vote -- of the Supreme Court!

And pay attention to that "one vote. It is not "fifty-one percent" that a candidate needs to beat President Bush, but fifty percent plus a single vote that determines the winner. Usually.

Oh. There is one more thing.

Money.

The pundits will tell you that whoever gets the Democrat nod will have to win the primary in Iowa, or New Hampshire, or both.

Don't believe it.

To get the Democratic nomination, the candidate will have to show he or she is capable of boosting the most campaign cash.

To put it in a plain and simple term, politics is first about money. This does not mean that candidates with the most money win at all times. If that were the case, and if she is willing, Sen. John Kerry's wife (heiress to the Heinz fortune) could supply the winning recipe.

No. It is the power to raise money -- somewhere toward the top of the best fundraisers. It is this that entitles one to the nod.

Democrats must face the fact: raising the money necessary to challenge George W. Bush will be an uphill battle for Democrats. The Bush White House is a virtual nuclear-powered vomitory for campaign contributions.

Four Democrat candidates, including Rep. Richard Gephardt (MO 3), Sen. Kerry (MA), Gov. Howard Dean (VT), and and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH 10), have already outlined their health care platform -- and that won't help much in the money arena, as much of the elite in America don't want to foot the bill. Thus far, this is only "difference" plank in the Democratic field.

All the major Democrat players are shuttling back and forth between the nation's major cities, using Iowa and New Hampshire as hubs.

And it's New Hampshire that remains the state to watch -- for the reason that the news media is largely controlled from the East Coast. Journalists covering the Democrats prefer New Hampshire over Iowa for many reasons. First, "caucuses" are not votes. Second, not too many New York or Washington bred-and-raised writers are interested in what Iowans think -- about anything. And that's selling Iowans short. There are a surprising number of geniuses and a few near-billionaires in Iowa, and they aren't all raising pigs.

Now, let's look at a few of the players.

It appears to me that Sen. Kerry is already making the typical Democrat mistakes. He is running what seems to be a hierarchal campaign, spending lots on "get-out-the-vote" projects, boffo slick printing, newspaper ads, and phone banks. All of these expenditures, in my opinion, are frittering away precious campaign currency.

At this point, it is worth mentioning that the best and least expensive way to reach voters remains television, followed by drive-time radio. Period. End of story. This early on, anything else throwing money down the drain.

Take printing, for instance: still expensive to produce and expensive to deliver. The best campaign consultants absolutely detest direct mail programs unless the candidate is swimming in money -- or unless the mail is unswervingly aimed at fundraising (to pay their fat retainers, of course). Challengers, especially, have trouble with printed material -- they should stick to the cheapest xerography to supply handouts for precinct walkers and canvassers. Yet candidates love the slick stuff. So managers, despite themselves, go out and print posters, costly brochures, slick banners, buttons, bumper stickers (which few will mar their cars with), and, of course, refrigerator magnets. All that money could be spent on radio and cable television buys.

Candidates also love billboards and yard signs. Nothing jumpstarts the ego like seeing your name and likeness on I-95 in 2000 point type.

It's not that volunteers and paid minions on the streets are not important. They are. As Karen Hicks, Dean's New Hampshire campaign manager said to ABC News, "It sets the tone for the whole campaign. It's an important backdrop. And can help really buffer against bad news."

That's true -- but at what cost? With Democrats, cost is everything.

The other mistake Democrats seem to make is "spending late, and spending lots." Republicans have long-ago figured out that the best way to spend any campaign budget is to spend on a gradual upward curve. This is the best prescription -- especially for challengers.

In New Hampshire, the winning Democrat would normally need between 50,000 and 75,000 votes to win. But with six perhaps still-weak but hard-driving candidates in the Democratic line-up, it is conceivable that the ultimate winner might need only 30,000 votes, or less, to take that primary. The more votes the better, of course -- the higher the tally, the more seriously the national party will take him (or her).

One might argue that 40,000 steak dinners for two might do the trick -- at a cost of less than a million dollars! Now wouldn't that be a "delicious semantic differential?"

The major players in New Hampshire, right now, are Gov. Dean and Sen. Kerry. Rep. Gephardt is a hardly-show, and Sen. Joseph Lieberman (CT) has yet to find his voice. Sen. John Edwards (SC) is staffing up, but don't expect much from him in New Hampshire -- not yet. He's staying South for awhile.

The key to winning the Democrat nod, in my opinion, is to "Come Home to the Party." Here's what I mean: Democrats, under the able but crippling stewardship of the Democratic Leadership Council -- which made certain Bill Clinton co-opted Republican ideas -- long ago abandoned their traditional base: working men and women, minorities, and those will little voice. They did it to win in 1992, and again in 1996. The fallout, however, was extraordinary -- eventually costing Democrats the House and the Senate.

Thus far the only Democrat candidate at least trying to come home is Howard Dean.

Let us see how long it takes the rest of the candidates to realize that embracing progressive and even liberal ideas may be the only method to create a true distinction between the Democrat candidate and George W. Bush.

It seems to me that embracing simple ideas -- for example, taking care of each other, shoring up our public schools, assuring workers a true living wage, and using tough love instead of tough hate to solve some international conflicts -- may just be a winner.

If history tells us anything, it tells us the pendulum swings. No matter how well or evil-intended, programs being implemented by ultra-conservative Republicans today may look rancid tomorrow. But if you do not stand for something -- and something unique when that day comes - you'll be overlooked as just another fading chapter in American history.

JEFF KOOPERSMITH is a political consultant, opinion research authority, policy analyst, and self-described "renegade lobbyist."

Here's the current political schedule from now until Election Day 2004, courtesy of abcnews.com. It will, of course, change. You can go to "The Note" for updates.

	June 3, 2003		Run-off in Denver mayoral race
	June 4-6, 2003		National Progressive Conference on "Taking Back America," DC
	June 5, 2003		New Jersey GOP Gala Event featuring New York Gov. George Pataki, East Rutherford, NJ
	June 6, 2003		Howard Dean appears on WMUR's "Conversation with the Candidate" series
	June 7, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Sen. Bob Graham, Council Bluffs, Iowa
	June 8, 2003		Vilsack-Pederson Family Picnic, Mt. Pleasant, Iowa
	June 9, 2003		"Living History" by Hillary Rodham Clinton arrives in bookstores.
	June 10, 2003		Sen. John Edwards (D-NC)'s birthday
	June 12-15, 2003		National Council of La Raza annual convention, Houston
	June 13, 2003		Rep. Richard Gephardt appears on WMUR's "Conversation with the Candidate" series
	June 13, 2003		Gov. Howard Dean, Sen. John Kerry, Rev. Al Sharpton and Elizabeth Edwards address Wisconsin Democratic Party State Convention, Milwaukee
	June 14, 2003		Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame annual convention
	June 15, 2003		Senate/House/key adviser personal financial disclosure forms due
	June 17, 2003		New Democrat Network Annual Summer Event
	June 19-20, 2003		Association of State Democratic Chairs presidential candidate forum, Minneapolis
	June 20, 2003		Rep. Dick Gephardt keynotes St. Charles County Democrat Days, St. Peter s, Mo.
	June 22, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Sen. John Kerry, Mason City, Iowa
	June 22, 2003		Presidential candidate forum hosted by Jesse Jackson's Rainbow/PUSH Coalition, Chicago (tenative)
	June 25, 2003		Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Washington, DC
	June 26, 2003		League of Conservation Voters/California League of Conservation Voters presidential candidate forum on the environment, Los Angeles, CA
	June 28, 2003		Florida Democrats Jefferson-Jackson Gala, Broward County
	June 28, 2003		Nat'l Assn of Latino Elected Officials candidate forum, Phoenix, Arizona
	June 30, 2003		tentative start date for Moussaoui trial
	June 31, 2003		Second campaign finance quarter ends
	June 5-10, 2003		71st annual meeting of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, Denver
	July 6, 2003		President Bush's birthday
	July 9-13, 2003		Young Republican National Federation Conference, Boston
	July 13, 2003		"Hear It From The Heartland" forum with Rep. Dick Gephardt, Dubuque, Iowa
	July 15, 2003		Quaterly campaign finance reports due to FEC
	July 19-23, 2003		Association of Trial Lawyers of America convention, San Francisco
	July 23-26, 2003		National Conference of State Legislatures Annual Meeting, San Francisco
	July 24-27, 2003		North Haverhill Fair, North Haverhill, NH
	July 25-29, 2003		National Association of Secretaries of State Summer Meeting, Portland, Maine
	July 25-27, 2003		Iowa AFSCME Biennial Convention, Sheraton Four Points Hotel, Des Moines, IA
	July 25-27, 2003		College Republicans Biennial Convention, DC
	July 27-Aug 1, 2003		United Food and Commercial Workers union annual meeting, San Francisco
	July 27-28, 2003		Democratic Leadership Council's 2003 "National Conversation," Philadelphia
	July 27, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Ottumwa, Iowa
	July 28, 2003		Bill Bradley's birthday.
	July 29-Aug-3, 2003		Chesire State Fair, Chesire, NH
	July 31-Aug 3, 2003		American Constitution Society national convention
	August 3, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun, Waterloo, Iowa
	Aug. 5, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Rev. Al Sharpton, Sioux City, Iowa
	Aug. 7-17, 2003		Iowa State Fair
	Aug. 8-12, 2003		American Bar Association annual meeting, San Francisco
	Aug. 13-15, 2003		Iowa Federation of Labor 47th Annual Convention, Waterloo
	Aug. 13-17, 2003		Young Democrats of America National Convention, Buffalo, NY
	Aug. 15-17, 2003		Cornish Fair, Cornish New Hampshire
	Aug. 16-19, 2003		National Governors Association summer meeting in Indianapolis
	Aug. 19, 2003		Bill Clinton's birthday
	Aug. 19, 2003		Tipper Gore's birthday
	Aug. 27-Sept 1, 2003		Lancaster Fair, Lancaster, NH
	Aug. 28- Sept 1, 2003		Hopkinton State Fair, NH
	Sept. 3-5, 2003		The Alliance for Retired Americans holds National Legislative Conference, Washington, D.C.
	Sept.12-21, 2003		Rochester Fair, Rochester, NH
	Sept. 15-17, 2003		National Restaurant Association lobbying conference, DC
	Sept. 19-21, 2003		National Federation of Republican Women biennial conference, Salt Lake City
	Sept. 21, 2003		"Hear It From the Heartland" forum with Sen. Joseph Lieberman, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
	Sept. 24-27, 2003		Congressional Black Caucus Foundation annual legislative conference, DC
	Sept. 25, 2003		Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Los Angeles, California.
	Sept. 31, 2003		Third campaign finance quarter ends
	Oct. 1, 2003		FY 04 begins
	Oct. 4, 2003		Louisiana Gubernatorial Open Primary
	Oct. 9, 2003		Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.)'s birthday
	Oct. 15, 2003		Quaterly campaign finance reports due to FEC
	Oct. 25, 2003		Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, New York City.
	Oct. 25, 2003		2003 pumpkin festival, Keene, New Hampshire
	Nov. 4, 2003		General elections in Virginia, Kentucky and Mississippi
	Nov. 6-11, 2003		National Association of Realtors annual convention, San Francisco
	Nov. 9, 2003		Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.)'s birthday
	Nov. 15, 2003		Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election
	Nov. 15, 2003		Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson day dinner.
	Nov. 17, 2003		Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's birthday
	Nov. 22, 2003		Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Miami, Florida.
	Dec. 5-7, 2003		Florida State Democratic Convention, either Tampa or Orlando
	Dec. 6, 2003		Presidential candidate forum with Iowa College Democrats, Iowa City
	Dec. 9, 2003		Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD)'s birthday
	Dec. 13, 2003		Democratic National Committee Presidential Dinner fundraiser, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
	Dec. 15, 2003		Uber-Democrat Donna Brazile's birthday.
	Jan. 19, 2004		Iowa caucuses
	Jan. 24, 2003		100 Club New Hampshire Democratic Party Annual Fundraiser, Sheraton Tera, Nashua
	Jan. 27, 2004		New Hampshire primary
	Jan. 31, 2004		Final 2003 fourth quarter campaign finance reports due to FEC
	Feb. 3, 2004		Delaware primary
	Feb. 3, 2004		South Carolina primary
	Feb. 3, 2004		Missouri primary
	Feb. 3, 2004		Arizona primary
	Feb. 3, 2004		New Mexico caucuses
	Feb. 3, 2003		Virginia GOP caucuses
	Feb. 3, 2004		Oklahoma primary
	Feb. 7, 2004		Michigan caucuses
	Feb. 8, 2004		Maine caucuses
	Feb. 10, 2004		Virginia Democratic primary
	Feb. 10, 2004		District of Columbia Democratic caucuses
	Feb. 14, 2004		Washington Democratic caucuses
	Feb. 17, 2004		Wisconsin primary
	Feb. 24, 2004		Idaho caucuses
	Feb. 24, 2003		Michigan GOP primary
	Feb. 27, 2004		Utah primary
	March.2, 2004		California primary
	March 2, 2004		Connecticut primary
	March 2, 2004		Georgia primary
	March 2, 2004		Hawaii caucuses
	March 2, 2004		Maryland primary
	March 2, 2004		Massachusetts primary
	March 2, 2004		Minnesota caucuses
	March 2, 2004		New York primary
	March 2, 2004		Ohio primary
	March 2, 2004		Rhode Island primary
	March 2, 2004		Vermont primary
	March 2, 2004		added June 5, 2003: Washington primary
	March 9, 2004		Florida primary
	March 9, 2004		Louisiana primary
	March 9, 2004		Mississippi primary
	March 9, 2004		Tennessee primary
	March 9, 2004		Texas primary
	March 16, 2004		Illinois primary
	July 26, 2004		Start of Democratic National Convention, Boston
	Aug. 14-29, 2004		2004 Summer Olympic Games, Athens, Greece
	Aug. 30, 2004		Republican Convention begins in New York
	Nov. 2, 2004		Election Day