Old Europe, a "Fine Paper," and PR: Blair's War Dilemma
by Nicola Mitchell

Feb. 11, 2003 -- LONDON (apj.us) -- I'll give you three guesses as to what the main topic of discussion has been among the UK press over the past couple of weeks.

Yes, that's right. It appears all roads are continuing to lead to Iraq as not even the State of The Union address could shift the threat of war from the front pages.

The pace of coverage really started to pick up after our fearless leader Tony Blair paid a visit to see his old pal George at Camp David, and it has been gathering speed ever since.

One of the main topics up for discussion has been who will manage to win the propaganda war for the hearts and minds of the public -- a subject we have been led to believe was top of the agenda at the recent summit.

But despite the PR machines having pulled out all the stops, it looks as though our friends George and Tony have found themselves with a little bit of a problem in the shape of, to coin a phrase from Donald Rumsfeld, "Old Europe"

For Blair and Bush the Camp David summit cemented their position as brothers in arms -- the US and Europe aligning together to fight the forces of evil, but unfortunately for Bush, his friend Tony doesn't speak for the whole of the continent.

And this is where the problem lies.

So far France and Germany are proving to be the main stumbling blocks for the pair, but by using a plan of political isolation, Blair is confident he can win their support.

It all began with the "signing" of a joint article backing US action against Iraq by the Wall Street Journal. In the end, eight European leaders signed the article: Britain naturally, followed by Spain, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, along with three soon to be members of the EU, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.

The signed article was later published by the Wall Street Journal -- but France and Germany had not even been consulted.

Brussels was furious by the move, but by the end of the week the plan was working as France said it could agree with most of the sentiments of the article and would sign in principle.

And so with the campaign to get Europe on board and officials now saying 'when' and not 'if' as regards to the prospect of a war, the need to capture public support is greater than ever. For Blair this support will prove to be crucial as he understands that Bush is setting about building his new world order, and the only way for Blair and the UK to be a part of it is to sign up now.

However, despite all the best efforts of the Downing Street press team, the propaganda war had already managed to claim its first high profile casualty, in the shape of Alastair Campbell, Blair's chief spin doctor and right hand man.

Much to the delight of the UK press, it has emerged that the secret spy dossier published by Downing Street last week, which was billed as a 'crucial plank' in the argument to convince the West they should go to war, was largely taken from the doctoral thesis of an American postgraduate, based on evidence 12 years out of date, and worst still, was put together by Campbell and his team and not by Middle Eastern experts.

The damage of this latest find has been widespread and not just for Downing street, but also for members of Bush's cabinet, namely Colin Powell who praised the document as a "fine paper."

Such mistakes have given the anti-war lobby something fresh to throw at the government, and with huge demonstrations against an Iraq attcke planned in London, there are still a lot of people out there who are yet to be convinced.

And so the press war will continue, but Blair is showing no signs of backing down, and both he and Bush look increasingly prepared to go it alone if needs be. For his part the prime minister remains confident that a second UN resolution and his powers of persuasion will be enough to get the rest of Europe on board. But despite his optimism, the task ahead may not be so easy, as the view from both political circles and the public is that we need to see some hard evidence, something a little more damming than the musings of a college stundent.

Whether we will get that luxury remains to be seen, but it is clear to all that Blair is making his place in history, and depending on the outcome of his actions, a war in Iraq will either make or break him, but it is certain that he is now left with little other choice than to go ahead, no matter what the consequences prove to be.