American Politics Journal

George's Lament
by William Rivers Pitt

"The most dangerous follower is he whose defection would destroy the whole party: that is to say, the best follower."
-- Friedrich Nietzsche

July 31, 2001 -- BOSTON (APJP) -- George W. Bush passed a milestone several days ago. He has been enthroned inside the White House for six months. The press, aided by the hollow bleatings of the Sunday morning mouthpieces, have this week enjoyed an old parlor game called 'Rate the Administration.'

It is a kind of Lawyers Dozens; questions are asked and answered, and some sort of consensus is reached. Such a game was played after Bush broke the 100 day marker, though it was a rather empty exercise.

After six months, however, there is a bit more meat on that bone. The time has come to climb a tall tree and survey the landscape. Bush has been a rather busy fellow in the last several weeks. Let us take stock of where we stand, and let us do so without the bleary aid of television's wisdom.

1. The Environment, The Energy Plan and the 'Crisis': It seems clear now from memoranda obtained from a variety of energy companies that the energy crisis we were so portentously warned of was nothing more than a massive cash grab. The whole scenario betrayed the most basic economic rules of supply and demand. There was a glut of gasoline in the refineries, yet prices remained appallingly high at the pumps. The simplest rules of economic gravity state that when you have a surplus of material, the price for that material must go down.

This did not happen. Had Senator James Jeffords not awoken on the wrong side of the bed one day, we might never have found out how such an immutable law could be so easily broken. A Democratic Senate, armed with subpoenas, pierced the veil of deceit and discovered that the petroleum industry had taken advantage of us all. There is a reason those prices are now coming down, and it has little to do with market pressures.

As for California, the crisis there seems to have eased. The fallout from the electricity de-regulation push under Republican Governor Wilson was terrible for a time, but Governor Davis has succeeded in bringing several new power plants on line. The citizens of California also deserve credit for solving the problem. Energy conservation has become a cultural phenomenon in San Francisco and other cities, and the people have collectively managed to slash their energy usage by up to 19%. That's one in the eye for Dick Cheney.

All of this means one thing - Bush's energy plan suddenly seems overwrought, environmentally hazardous and not entirely necessary. Some form of energy plan is a must, but the drill-happy coal-sucking blueprint drawn by Bush will no longer pass muster in Congress, particularly due to the environmentally-conscious Republican Senators from New England.

The aforementioned energy plan, proffered so early in this administration, has painted Bush as nothing more than a front man for the energy industry from whence he sprang. The world community has turned against America's arrogant anti-Kyoto stance, and Bush appears perfectly willing to let America slip into the status of a rogue nation.

Bush has ignored dire warnings regarding the state of the environment delineated in a scientific report that he himself commissioned. He wishes to drill for oil in virtually any spot in America that seems feasible, including the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge and the Georges Banks fishing area off the coast of Cape Cod. He wishes to give free rein to the coal industry so they can rip the tops off mountains in West Virginia and peddle the most noisomely polluting energy source we have.

Since there is no energy crisis, it is clear that Bush's agenda in all this is to pay off some political debts to companies like Enron and Sterling, who financed his career. Considerations like clean air and water do not even surface in his calculations.

Again, however, he is due to hit a legislative wall in Congress. Beyond that, the stirrings of a real scandal are in the offing. Vice President Cheney, author of the energy plans, is stonewalling the GAO's investigation into exactly how he came up with his plan, and whom he consulted. This will bear close watching.

2. Stem Cell Research: No matter what he decides, Bush is quite literally damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. If he decides to federally fund stem cell research, the anti-abortion wing of his party will rend their skin and tear their hair in outrage. If he bends to the wishes of that wing, he will expose himself as a captive of extremist politics, alienating the mass of Americans who live in the political center and consider stem cell research worth pursuing.

Bush seems to believe that if he denies stem cell research funding, he will pick up the Catholic vote. He is sadly in error on this. The majority of American Catholics do not march in locked step with the Pope on many issues, abortion and stem cells being two. Besides, there's the pesky issue of the death penalty to consider.

In the end, if Bush decides to appease the Taliban wing of his party on this issue, his victory will be short. Congress appears poised to take up the debate, and there are enough people in there who disagree with Bush regarding stem cells that any veto he uses will be overridden. He will look benighted, and Congress will look like heroes.

3. Patients' Bill of Rights: This legislation is going so poorly that the Bush partisans in Congress had to table the issue. The GOP does not have the votes to pass a bill favorable to Bush, which means they can't pass a watered down bill that won't annoy the insurance industry.

Rather than face the prospect of having to veto massively popular legislation, Bush and his cronies have decided upon a tactical retreat. More arm-twisting is in the offing, but for the moment Bush's will on this issue has been utterly thwarted.

4. Government Funding for Faith-Based Charities: This has been a catastrophe for Bush. The Washington Post broke a story detailing how the Bush administration, and Karl Rove in particular, were prepared to allow the Salvation Army and other institutions to discriminate against gay employees in return for public support of the initiative. Pop goes the weasel.

In the scramble to repair the damage from that revelation, Bush was faced with a revolt within the ranks of GOP moderates in the House, who didn't like the smell of that Post story. Bush managed to quell the insurrection, but faces now a Senate that does not seem at all interested in passing the bill. The Faith-Based initiative appears to be dead on arrival at Tom Daschle's door.

5. Star Wars II and the Armed Forces: A successful test of the space-based defense system has been revealed to be an utter fraud. The drone that was launched during a recent test of the anti-missile weaponry had a beacon on it, which allowed the defensive missiles to knock it down with ease. It is a safe bet that the Chinese will place no such beacons on any missiles they decide to flip our way.

Meanwhile, the very idea that such a system is defensive in nature has been exposed as a complete lie. Defense Secretary Rumsfeld has plans, detailed in a report by the UK Guardian, to develop space borne bomber planes which can destroy targets halfway around the globe in a matter of minutes. Once the details of this plan become widely known, the friends Bush has apparently won over in Russia and Italy will turn on him immediately.

There are even rumblings within the Pentagon. The Generals believe Bush is short-shrifting their budgets. Bush took office on a promise to restore strength and honor to the military. Somebody has to break it to the Chiefs that there isn't any money left over for their toys after the tax cut. One hopes they spend their $300 wisely.

6. The Tax Cut and the Economy: In the next several days, millions of Americans will receive a check in the mail from the IRS for somewhere in the vicinity of $300-$600, depending on their income. After they use it to buy a barbecue, or to make a down-payment on a car, or to pay off credit card debt, that will be it. The political impact of Bush's tax rebate will be negligible in the short run, because $300 just isn't a lot of money.

In the next several years, millions of Americans will realize that Social Security and Medicare were savaged so they could have that $300. Few of them will see the worth of such an exercise, and Bush will have some tall explaining to do. One wonders if he is up to the drill.

By all appearances, the machine of our economy is still running fairly strong. Appearances are deceptive, however. On the day Bush got his tax cut passed, the economy became his entire. There can be no more blaming a soft market on William Jefferson Clinton.

Recent reports from Wall Street paint a gloomy picture indeed. Exxon Mobil, Lucent and AT&T came out with dismal earnings reports this week, demonstrating that the troubles will not be over in a quarter or two. A July 25th report from the Washington Post had this to say:

"About 1,600 companies are issuing their earnings reports this week and, so far, no sector has been spared from disappointment, according to analysts. Second-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies are expected to have declined 17.3 percent, according to First Call/Thomson Financial, which tracks the earnings forecasts of analysts."

Beneath all the numbers lives a sneaking suspicion among the troops on the Street that Bush is not much of an economic manager. Secretary of the Treasury O'Neill has no clout whatsoever on Wall Street, a far cry from the sure hand wielded by Robert Rubin. Clinton had dozens of Streeters working in his administration, giving the markets the impression that they had a voice in the White House. This is no longer the case now that Bush is in command.

The consensus appears to be that, after the tax cut, the Bush administration has run out of ideas about the economy. Industries like energy and defense are receiving all the attention. Bush's apparent desire to make America into an outcast nation has made international investors skittish, and rightfully so. Beyond that, there is the memory of Arbusto and Harken Oil, two well-funded businesses that Bush managed to run into the ground.

An article in last weeks Business Week entitled 'Anybody Seen George Lately?' has crystallized this growing unease:

"The U.S. Presidency is arguably the most influential bully pulpit in the world. But George W. Bush definitely hasn't -- in the lingo of Teddy Roosevelt -- done a bully job on economic leadership. Instead, he has used his pulpit to promote pet causes such as funneling federal dollars to religious organizations that provide social services.
"Think about it. Bush has given precious few speeches on the state of the economy. Instead, he has focused on political initiatives such as his tax cut or, on rare occasion, trade liberalization. Sixty percent of Americans tell the Pew Research Center that their personal financial situation today is 'fair' or 'poor,' but the President rarely reassures nervous workers.
"Bush doesn't need to be another FDR and caution against fear itself. But it sort of makes you long for the smooth-talking days of Bill Clinton, who at least felt people's pain."

Pay close attention to that last sentence. An influential business journal is longing in print for the days when a President who understood the economy, and who was deeply involved in the maintenance of that economy, was sitting in the White House.

The truth of the matter is there for all to see. Bush has been stymied, or has failed outright, at virtually every attempt at leadership he has made. He has isolated America from the world community, and has demonstrated beyond a doubt that his concerns lie with a tiny minority of wealthy contributors and ideological zealots.

To be sure, many of these problems will cost him politically. Nothing, however, will have a greater impact on his administration and his prospects for re-election than if the business community and Wall Street come to the conclusion that there is no one manning the lighthouse. They are the followers that can bring the whole house of cards crashing down if they decide to jump ship.

A safe bet has them giving Bush six more months to get his act together. After that, they will abandon him for a candidate who understands the inside baseball of this new economy. The last President who fit that description attended the Democratic National Convention, and was greeted like a conquering hero.

Six months is not a very long time. Factor in the onrushing midterm elections, and six months seems like a mere blip on the screen. In that short span, Bush has proven himself unable to push his agenda through a Congress that, before Jeffords, appeared to be nothing more than his rubber stamp. He has proven himself to be an unsure actor on the world stage, an impression that will be reinforced in ghastly measure if Iran-Contra enabler John Negroponte becomes our ambassador to the United Nations.

This situation, simply put, is untenable for Bush. He is assailed on all sides, not by unreasonable enemies, but by blowback from his own ill-conceived and poorly executed plans. All of his problems will be but shouts in the maelstrom if the business community and the Street decide he is unworthy. Time will tell. When Vegas starts taking odds on the next Presidential election, however, you should feel safe laying your chips on the velvet square marked 'one term only.'

Sources:

'Anybody Seen George Lately?'
Business Week, July 23, 2001
http://biz.yahoo.com/bizwk/010723/lajwirrdygxoxp59vi1nqw.html

'Gloomy Profit Reports Undercut Stocks Again'
The Washington Post, July 25, 2001
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A45180-2001Jul24.html

'Bush plans "Space bomber"'
The Guardian (London), July 29, 2001
http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,529208,00.html