American Politics Journal

An Outsider Looking In
Step back and take a breath...
by Chris Gelken

Wednesday, April 4, 2001 -- HONG KONG (APJP) -- According to a Reuters News Agency report, the families of the crew of a U.S. Navy spy plane held by China are frightened and angry over the lack of information on their loved ones. Their anger, understandable under the circumstances, is directed at the Chinese who are holding the 24 airmen and women at an airbase on the island of Hainan in the South China Sea.

After the crew does return home, and they will, I wonder how long it will be before some of those same family members begin to direct their anger at the US government? I cannot get over the feeling that there is a lot that the US military and government are not telling us about this affair. Look at the facts, or rather, the 'facts' as we know them.

The spy plane itself is a bit of an old boot, but packed floor to ceiling with the most sophisticated eavesdropping and communications equipment. Among that equipment is a 'real time' link to its home base where information - intelligence - that has been gathered is sent, in the blink of an eye. Bearing this in mind, it follows that the plane's headquarters would have at least been aware of all the events of the mission, in particular from the moment the EP3 was 'lit' by the Chinese fighter's radar to the moment of the collision. Yet nothing has been revealed except: It was a normal mission. And that means what, exactly?

Assuming the 'real time' link was damaged by the collision, there was still other means of communication because when the news eventually broke, the US military said the plane had sent out a 'mayday' signal and then reported that they were safe on the ground in Hainan. In the intervening time, there is no word on what was communicated from the plane to its base. That is a big gap. Hard to believe, but at the end of day-one all we had from the US authorities was confirmation of a mid-air incident, a 'mayday' signal, and a confirmation that the plane was down safely 'somewhere' on the island of Hainan.

It now appears that the military spokesman 'forgot' to mention that during that final communication from the EP3, there was word from the crew that Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops were boarding the aircraft. Maybe, just maybe, the spokesman withheld that snippet for fear of alarming the families. Not lying, perhaps, just being economical with the facts. Well, lying, yes, because every US official questioned on the first day insisted that what they had revealed was all they had. So, if they were lying then - for humanitarian reasons of course - how many other lies have they told for other, perhaps more sinister reasons?

As the story unfolded the Chinese blamed the EP3 for ramming one of their jets, and the US said it was the other way around. Obviously, the Chinese were tracking events on radar as were the Americans. One side is not being completely honest. The question is, which one? I wouldn't like to draw conclusions, but the first story released by the Chinese is the one they have stuck to throughout. On the other hand, the US has been vague, suggesting that perhaps the Chinese jet intentionally 'bumped' the EP3 or that because of dangerous Chinese maneuvers, the two aircraft came into contact resulting in damage to the EP3 and the loss of the Chinese jet.

Remember, the 'real time' link wasn't broken (if in fact it was) until the collision, and there was obviously communication from the EP3 to its base from the time of the crash to the moment its engines shut down on Hainan. Just think about it. It is quite obvious that information is being carefully released in an effort to shape public opinion, and if the coverage of the incident on CNN is anything to go by, then it has been something of a spin-meistering success.

Now how about the 'sovereign territory' claims and subsequent warning to the Chinese to stay off the plane. Well, we already know that the US knew from the EP3's final communication that the PLA were boarding the aircraft, so it was all a bit pointless, don't you think? No, it provided a useful diversion. The sovereignty claim itself is, however, coming under a lot of legal scrutiny. As it turns out, under the circumstances the plane doesn't appear to have any. And, let's face it, what would have been left for the Chinese to learn once the plane was on the ground?

There was plenty of time to erase data, smash equipment and even jettison some of it over the sea. According to an 'expert' interviewed on the BBC, a lot of the equipment even has 'mini' explosive devices that could be set off once the plane was on the ground. So what have the Chinese got? A 1960s era airplane and a lot of tangled wire. The focus and excitement over the sovereignty issue was purely a diversion, a red herring. But why? Apart from the fact that it captured the public imagination and added to their outrage against the Chinese, I can't think of any reason whatsoever. It certainly didn't help bring the matter to an early conclusion, did it?

(I can already hear people ask 'why should they have smashed the equipment, under international norms the Chinese should have honoured the integrity of the plane and treated it as sovereign territory. To clarify: Step one - go back to the beginning and read this again. Step two - if the shoe was on the other foot would the Americans have passed up the opportunity of an intelligence gathering coup on the grounds that it 'wouldn't be the right thing to do?' If the crew didn't try to disable the equipment, they might prefer to stay in China rather than face courts martial when they get home.)

The Chinese will doubtless be thrilled to hear that a US spy satellite has photographed one of their technicians crawling over the plane with a wrench in his hand. This snippet seems to fly in the face of earlier claims of ignorance as to the status of the plane, and will clearly upset the Chinese to know that they can't even visit the airbase toilet without a US intelligence analyst timing their 'movements'. So much technology to show off, and yet so much alleged ignorance of what really happened. Bit of a contradiction.

The internet chat-rooms are full of speculation over what really happened in the skies over the South China Sea. From wildly improbable to highly plausible, but the fact is, the people who really know what happened are not saying. Summarising the avalanche of opinion and the few facts, my guess would be that the US plane was getting just a little too close to one of China's new destroyers. We'll find out eventually whether or not it was still in international airspace. Perhaps the two Chinese jets tried to box-in the EP3 and force it to change course, or less likely, to land on the island of Hainan.

Don't US carrier groups have some rules about chasing off 'bogeys' that come too close - even though they might be in what would normally be considered international air space?

Who knows, maybe the US pilot made an unexpected turn while the Chinese pilot was distracted simply trying to fly his jet at near stalling speed, or maybe the Chinese pilot temporarily lost control and drifted into the EP3. Given the fact that the Chinese pilots were guarding their country and its secrets from a highly unwelcome visitor on an undisguised spying mission, maybe the second Chinese pilot was enraged to see his partner hurtle towards the sea and decided to take more assertive action. Who knows?

And maybe it was just three young pilots trying to impress each other. From the day man took to the air, young men have tried to show off their flying skills - often dangerous, frequently fatal. Both sides know the other tries to spy on it, all three pilots were simply doing their job. One of them probably died.

Imagine this incident in reverse, and it was a Chinese spy plane flying one of hundreds of missions along the California coast. Missions that Washington had protested time and time again. Imagine it, it helps perspective.

And the exit plan? China is probably seeking some sort of quid pro quo, probably over Taiwan, while the Americans want to maintain the high moral ground and look tough. They'll figure something out and then claim that no deal was done. Another lie. We will get to read about it in the memoirs of a State Department official in about 10 to 15 years.

The important thing is for the United States to acknowledge that what it was doing along the South China coast is hugely offensive to the government and people of China. It is a bit like car accidents between a Westerner and an Arab in Saudi Arabia, whatever the circumstances, it is always the Westerners fault. The Saudi reasoning is: If the Westerner hadn't been there, the accident wouldn't have happened. In those circumstances people who have experienced that sort of incident have told me it is better to make a quick apology, pay the fine and then fume about it in the comfort of your Aramco compound. You'll be back driving the next day anyway. Quickest mended, quickest forgotten.

In the meantime, the families back in the US have an anxious wait and the 24 crewmen and women get to eat original Chinese food for a while. Probably not so bad when you consider the fate of the Chinese pilot.



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