American Politics Journal -- There Are Polls and There Are Polls!



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There Are Polls and There Are Polls!
by Tamara Baker

Monday, July 3, 2000 -- SAINT PAUL, MINNESOTA -- It's been all over the media in poll after poll lately:

"Gore Behind by Seven Points"...
"Gore Behind by Eleven Points"...
"Gore's Campaign in Tailspin as Bush Holds Double-Digit Lead"...

...except, oddly enough, in Newsweek.

All of the polls Newsweek has taken over the last month show that Gore, far from trailing Bush, is at this moment locked in a dead heat and has been for several weeks.

The latest one, done in conjunction with Princeton Survey Research Associates, is no exception:

The survey of 607 registered voters showed Gore with 46 percent to Republican Bush's 45 percent, well within the survey's four percentage point margin of error. Nine percent of those surveyed were undecided.
In a four-way race, with Gore and Bush challenged by Green Party candidate Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan, Gore received the support of 40 percent of voters surveyed; Bush, 41 percent; Nader, 6 percent; and Buchanan, 2 percent. Eleven percent indicated they were undecided.

Now, why does this poll's results differ so starkly from those of the other polls the media is touting? Here's the answer:

Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates, which conducted the June 29-30 survey for Newsweek, said the results differed from recent polls showing Bush with a double-digit lead over Gore because Newsweek polled registered voters.
Hugick said the other surveys screened "likely voters," which may have overestimated the Republican count at this phase of the campaign.

Registered voters are where it's at. If you're registered already, you've made a commitment to vote, one way or the other. "Likely" voters are blowing smoke unless and until they sign on the dotted line.

This brings up another question: Why has Newsweek suddenly decided to be at least partially fair to Al Gore? Are they still smarting over CoupGate and the (true) perception people had of them as being in Ken Starr's back pocket? Is being nice to Clinton's Veep a way for them to fight this perception?

Veeeeerrrrry interestink.