Pundit Pap
for Sunday, November 1, 1998

Monday, November 2, 1998 --- New York (APJP) -- The main topic was allegedly the midterm elections this coming Tuesday, but the real Topic One on everyone's mind was the negative ad blitz unleashed by the GOP -- and the possibility that the ads may backfire and undermine the gains that the opposition party to the President has made in every mid-termer since well before the turn of the century.

Fox News Sunday

Once again, we have to praise FNS for touching on so many topics within the context of the midterm elections being Item One -- and once again, we have to take Tony and Brit to task for rudeness.

Tony Snow
"We'll throw red meat to Paul Begala, Tom DeLay and Barney Frank!" Now, if that line from Tony Snow didn't tell all, nothing did! Tony first showed Republican and Democrat "attack" ads being shown in about 10 states with closely contested elections (but getting national attention given the coverage they have gotten on cable and evening news).

Tom DeLay and Barney Frank were the first two guests. DeLay's reaction to the ads was an outright lie: "2/3 of each ad talks about the Republicans lowering taxes [and] reforming welfare." We wonder if he's even seen the ads.

"While they are exploiting the President's behavior for political purposes, they have engaged in more serious transgressions," replied Frank, who lit into the GOP for holding up a number of pressing issues including Internet copyright legislation and pressuring a lobbying group not to name a Democrat their President. Brit Hume, predictably, questioned Frank as to whether this was "really" worse than the President's problems.

Political tampering with industry organizations -- we guess this just doesn't remind Brit of Germany and Italy in the 1930s.

Tony and Brit gave DeLay a free pass to light into the President's "ineffectiveness" and "failures" in foreign policy with a barrage of one-sided spin points -- at which point Frank reiterated his anger about Republicans "extorting businesspeople" (something DeLay avoided addressing) -- he even took a jab at Fox News, saying "You said throw them red meat, but let's talk issues."

We laughed. Tony and Brit did not -- in fact, they pulled one of their favorite stunts on Frank, cutting him off before he was finished answering questions. "I don't know the ground rules," complained Frank, and rightfully so.

Tony said, "We're just trying to move things along." Fact is, things were moving along just fine -- and this is the second time Tony has given a hard-righter a free pass to make unsubstantiated spin against Clinton and cut off Frank when he discusses issues and facts.

DeLay was hilarious when he said, "Those kinds of ads are disgusting." He then listed a litany of his own issue-related complaints and then said about the Democrats "They don't have an agenda!" It was hilarious -- DeLay in effect reading the Democrat agenda and then saying they had none!

The hard right would be wise to put a sock in DeLay, who himself faces an investigation into giving a potential GOP contributor a "roadmap" to circumventing campaign contribution limits. Having DeLay on to complain about campaign ethics is the equivalent of having someone like, say, Dan Burton investigation campaign finance wrongdoing.

But Frank was right on the money about Tony and Brit providing plenty of red meat -- in an effort to once again "bait" Barney, in an attempt to make him look extreme. Their constant interruptions and cut-off tactics, which did not allow Frank to complete his points, once again backfired, making Tony and Brit look far more biased than usual when they should have been rolling with Barney.

Fred Barnes
Paul Begala was their second guest, and Fred "The Weasel" Barnes -- substituting for Mara Liasson -- began his first question with "The White House has complained about these ads..." Barnes, trying to "spin" the situation into making the White House look as if they're on the defensive, only chooses to tell half the truth. They love the GOP ads in the West Wing -- sure, they're there to reinforce anti-Clinton voters to turn out, but these voters would have turned out anyway. And the backlash, reinforced by ads responding to the GOP wave, seems to be bigger than the intended positive effect of the attack ads. The White House even chose to do their own "Well, what did you tell your kids" radio ad, with two mothers lamenting no money for schools and their kids' school budgets gutted by the GOP.

Still in the first question, Barnes made sure to underline the words "[Clinton] lied to the American people." About no new taxes? Denying selling arms to a terrorist state? Please, Fred, most Americans lie about their private life -- especially the married ones.

To his credit, Barnes followed up with an actual issue-oriented question concerning the budget surplus and social security -- which gave Begala a chance to underline a number of budget issues and Clinton's "fiscal responsibility."

Begala also discussed the President's fundraising, but shifted to mention of the President's support for a patient's bill of rights -- killed by the GOP.

Brit: "What happened to the 'happy warrior' Clinton?" Begala said that it didn't work in '94 -- a surprising and accurate admission. Hume, smiling, asked "So you're saying it didn't work?" (isn't that what he said, Brit? were you asleep?) and, of course, followed up with "It doesn't have anything to do with this scandal?" -- which eventually led to "Would this have happened if it weren't for the stain on that dress?"

Clever, Brit -- shifting the line of questioning from "happy warrior" to "stains." Fact is, Clinton has been out there campaigning -- and so have Gore and the First Lady. Begala fired back at Hume about "this endless partisan hounding of him" -- clearly taking fire at Brit. Begala continued: "Give him credit -- there was a time in the 70s and 80s when people thought the Democrats are out of touch -- now it's the Republicans... too far to the right."

Begala also made mention of a development that made some of the Monday morning papers and would be repeated by White House boosters Sunday: "In the Los Angeles Times it was reported that in the RNC National Meeting that they would conduct poll watching... with video cameras... to try to scare [black] voters in a way that could be intimidation... Ballot intimidation tactics, they have done this for twenty years."

Watch this story, politics fans -- it could get very interesting.

The following segment, with Sen. Pat Moynihan (D-NY) and Bob Dole. Not a whole lot was said, other than both guests predictably attacking attack ads. Dole "Somehow we have to get it out of politics." And Moynihan quite accurately pointed out that the emergence of television advertising as the most expensive and high-profile means of campaign communication has coarsened the campaign and election process. "TV has become a threat... it spends too much money."

Tony sounded ridiculous when at one point he asked "Is there any other issue other than this subliminal issue of Bill Clinton?"

Subliminal? The GOP has explicitly tried to make Clinton Issue One!

Panel time turned first to the hot races and predictions.

Fred made the most provocative prediction (at least for a prediction coming from Fred): he quoted another pundit who had said " 'It will take a stake through his heart to kill D'Amato' -- and Schumer's it!" Only Brit said it was anyone's guess. There was some banter on the "Putzhead" flap (as there was on every show this weekend); Juan mentioned that D'Amato may be vulnerable in upstate New York where the economy has slowed down -- something that does not wash with the experience of one of our editors who frequents the upstate area.

Tony then ran a couple of "funny ads" -- one a negative ad concerning "Feingold voted for the cow gas study" -- including bovine flatulence. Even we chuckled. He then ran one of Jesse "The Body" Ventura's "Action Figure" ads running in Minnesota -- very clever ads which both tout the Reform candidate and promote his "Campaign RV" tour of Minnesota.

Juan pointed out that "the only reason we're talking about this race is Jesse Ventura... I don't think he'll win, but when it's over we'll miss him."

Fact is, when he ran for mayor in a Minneapolis suburb, voter turnout skyrocketed. He could pull it off!

Juan also mentioned that outside of the South, the Lewinsky ads "have engendered something of a backlash" but Democrat ads appealing to blacks "are patronizing to black people."

When Tony said "Let's change gears a little bit -- Paula Jones." Conditional payment of a million bucks from gadfly millionaire Al Hirschfeld (whom Jones called "Mistah Hersh-field".)

Brit: "Klayman pointed out that Hirschfeld is in tax trouble."

Fred again shocked us: "I think she detracts from the morality of her case by waving around a check... She's in it for the money."

We're breaking from most of the pundits -- we think that Bob Bennett may decide NOT to settle because the Hirschfeld payoff is tainted by the fact he is trying to settle his IRS problems, and his agreeing to a settlement into which Hirschfeld has interloped would not be in the best interest of Clinton. A risk? Yes, but it would likely sow further discord among the factions surrounding Paula Jones, all of whom are clamoring for their payday -- leaving an even greater impression that the case is about extortion, politics and money, not justice or sexual harassment.

The McLAUGHin Group

It's the governors, stupid!

John McLaughlin
In his zeal to take the spotlight off losing Republican effort for House and Senate seats, John McLaughlin bored us to tears -- reading a list of the 37 states where Republicans are governors. Boy, were we impressed! What a jerk. Then, to be "balanced," he read the 17 states where Democrats are governors (snore). Is this guy for real?

Then he asked the gain for republicans in the eleven states that now have Democrat governors and are in the election pool. Pat Buchanan said 4. Eleanor Clift said that the Democrats will pick up the Crown Jewel -- California -- and also reminded McLaughlin that the Republicans are running as if they were Clinton -- on education, Social Security. Tony Blankley said 2 to 5. Michael Barone, "King" of Readers' Digest said 3. He plays the big state role and said that consensus has now moved to the right, in contradiction to Eleanor Clift. Of course, he publishes a political guidebook that more Republicans buy than Democrats, and works for a magazine that appeals to the lowest common denominator of Americans who read. Right. Piffle.

We say as long as the Governors are doing a good job, let them stay, whether Republican or Democrat.

McLaughlin then brought to the fore the worst nightmare for Democrats -- that Governors who have responsibility for redistricting will gerrymander congressional districts to the GOP's favor. No one immediately points out that federal courts have a lot to say about that -- and that any foolish moves in this area won't be affirmed and, in fact, will be judicially reversed.

McLaughlin wants both Bush babies to win: George W. in Texas and Jeb in Florida.

We think Jeb might lose.

McLaughlin then asked why so few Jewish people are running for governor. Eleanor asked why they are discussing this. It was humiliating for all.

And then -- time for a General Electric commercial. GE: the ADM of major appliances is now trying to get into the life insurance business! Oh, brother.

"Mi Casa Su Casa?" exhorted John. How many seats will the GOP pick up? Pat said 12. Eleanor said the average is generally 26 but the Republicans will pick up only 6 - a win for Democrats. Tony "Toady" Blankley said 7. Michael said 8 -- and that the Democratic party will disappear in 2028! We were rolling on the floor.

None mention that more than 60% of voters are registered Democrats who don't turn out because they think business controls the government.

And they are right.

In the Senate, Pat said 6 seats. What a joke! Eleanor predicts 2 -- which is right in line with our sense. Tony said 4. Barone said 3. McLaughlin said 5 -- are John and Pat playing with a full deck?

Issue Three - October Surprise! McLaughlin focused on the $10 million ad campaign that is running in key districts which make the election a "referendum on Bill Clinton." He even shows the three spots. "Reward Bill Clinton?" ran the first. It is a joke -- no one seems to think this will really do much to energize Republicans. Eleanor went so far as to say it will energize Democrats because the spots are the brainchild of none other than Newt Gingrich -- the single most reviled man or woman in Congress. McLaughlin said that this is a way to channel a lot of negative energy into voting for Reeps. We disagree -- it will channel it right to Democrats.

Come to think of it, we wish the GOP would spend $30 million more -- to ensure a Democrat majority in BOTH houses!

Then he showed a Democrat response. "Wasting Millions of Investigations / They've Forgotten About Us." Barone said the ad helps Democrats but then attacks both the GOP and Democrat "production values."

Ha, ha, haha, ha -- Barone ought to look at the "production values' of his own magazine, which seem frozen in a denial-addled 1950s milquetoast mindset, despite the graphic "improvements" of the last year.

A ridiculous discussion ensued on whether the President apologized enough. They should have discussed when Paula Jones should apologize.

Predictions!!
Pat: The IMF will give Brazil $45 billion.
Eleanor: Democrats will sweep the statewide offices in California.
Michael: John Engler will beat Jeff Feiger for Michigan Governor by the biggest margin in history. Awesome, Michael! That's a safe prediction if we ever saw one -- Feiger is attorney for Jack "Dr. Death" Kevorkian.

Meet the Press

Tim Russert
"John Glenn, how's he doing? Election day: 48 hours and counting -- do the Democrats really have a chance to capture the house?" Well, that's a surprise! "Will Tuesday's outcome be counted as a referendum on Bill Clinton?" -- that's right, another discussion of the GOP Clinton attack commercials!

Russert's first guest was the charming and informative NASA chief Dan Goldin. Goldin claimed that Glenn was owed a second flight, and that he was launched for scientific reasons. Russert asked whether this is a reward for meritorious service, then asked whether there will be other seniors in space so NASA can chart their experiences against the Glenn flight.

The entire discussion was ludicrous -- this shuttle flight would have gone with or without Glenn. His presence on the shuttle cost zip.

It's some of both -- publicity and good science, asked Russert, and Goldin agreed. Goldin said a lot of people have personally contacted him this week to volunteer to become astronauts -- especially older people.

The launch cost $400 million. Russert asked whether that was worth it instead of spending it on education. A stupid question. Goldin mentions both Eli Lilly and Merck as having experiments on board to aid pharmaceutical development.

Russert then turned to the international space station, whose first component launches in a matter of weeks. Goldin said it will go forward -- and remember, we spent $5 trillion on the cold war. That was the right answer. Goldin also claimed we could launch missions to Mars from there. He also mentioned developing new drugs for the second time. Was this a quid pro quo for Merck and Lilly's investment? Goldin, who has turned back $40 billion to the government over the past 5 years, feels that he can bring in the space station close to budget.

What a breath of fresh air -- an actual policy discussion on just how much Americans should spend for space exploration!

Then came another ADM commercial. What we wouldn't give to read our own voiceover: "ADM -- controlling your government by buying the finest hand-picked politicians and supporting public affairs pundits!"

After ADM came GE and Lucent Technologies spots -- and a commercial for something called The Alliance for Better Campaigns.

Russert then welcomed Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-MO) and asked whether Democrats will take back the House. Gephardt said "We would have a great election if people would turn out... if you vote Democratic you'll get attention paid to education, health care and saving Social Security. If you get Republicans - just most investigations."

Russert said Rep. John Kasich (R-OH) will call for tax cuts. Big ones. Gephardt said he would also call for tax cuts for the middle class, but first make certain that social security is stabilized. Gephardt does not think you can cut taxes by as much as Kasich wants to -- about $750 billion dollars over the next five years.

Russert then turned to "how personal" this race has gotten. He reads a letter from Gephardt to the Speaker -- Newt Gingrich -- saying, in essence, that he did not deserve to be speaker for masterminding the new GOP attack ads on Clinton.

And Gephardt is right. The Speaker not only represents both sides of the aisle, but would also sit in judgment of the President if the impeachment process continues -- and he should have recused himself on this issue. Instead, Newt foolishly chose to hit at Clinton in what some congressional aides tell us is "payback" for Newt's own mini-trial which resulted in him being fined for lying to Congress more than a dozen times about money laundering and other ethical lapses.

Russert then asked about the DNC commercial that said vote and tell Congress we are ready to move on. Russert asked whether, if the Dems take over the House, the Clinton investigation be dropped? Gephardt said no, but Congress should stick to the Starr Report only, and not trot out every unproved allegation against the Clintons as the Republicans plan to do. Gephardt correctly points out that Congress had better concentrate on important matters in January. Gephardt said he feels the President was wrong, but impeachment may not be the answer and that the Committee was not even looking at the standards for impeachment. He then quotes Senator Bob Torricelli (D-NJ) who said he is concerned that a Democrat victory on Tuesday might convince the President that Congress would drop the impeachment investigations. Gephardt straddles the question.

It is clear , however, that Democrats could not simply drop the issue if they achieved a majority in the House. They would first have to put Ken Starr on trial along with other witch-hunters from around the country. Then -- and only then -- they could drop the matter easily.

Russert then moved to John Kasich, a Republican we respect. Kasich thought that the GOP will win 6-8 seats and that Democrats might sit home because they are ashamed of the President. He said there is no doubt that Gingrich will be elected Speaker once again.

We agree -- but what a terrible development that will be.

Kasich thinks he can do his massive tax cut using half the surplus for social security and the rest for tax cuts. He thinks the total surplus would be $1.5 trillion. Of course this is a foolish overestimation. There may not even be a surplus by next year as the economy sours and more people require federal government aid. Russert pointed this out obliquely.

Kasich said the Federal Reserve should step in and loosen reserves for banks. This is a VERY BAD IDEA - it might guarantee another BCCI outcome, bank failures galore. He appeals to the baby boomers - those 46-55 years old on the social security issue. This is a wise strategy, because it is this group that votes in greatest numbers. Kasich has called for the scuttle of the space station, but now said that he doesn't think the program will be killed.

Russert then reads the silliest items in the budget - research on grasshoppers, research on decaffeinated chewing gum, etc. Kasich said he didn't get any calls on his proposed spending cuts from any Senator. And Kasich is right -- the GOP failed in its promise to return control to local governments. Kasich said he and Gingrich will again propose the power shift. Of course, this is baloney -- once elected, Congress acts to maintain and expand its control. Always. This is a fact of life that will never end.

Kasich, wisely, is the first Republican to say he does not think the President should be impeached! We told you we respected him. Kasich is an issues man and one of the true leaders in the Republican party. He does say that Congress cannot sweep this under the rug -- and of course that is true -- mostly because the GOP has convinced the people that the President did at least something wrong. Now they must play-act their way to a wrist slap. Kasich, however, may not prevail in this wisdom. Democrats must be careful to maintain the 71% of Americans that do not want Clinton impeached.

And notice how Russert has retreated from his non-stop Clinton bashing by tactfully questioning moderates like Kasich. Very sly. Very sly.

The boyish Kasich is someone to watch. He should run for the GOP presidential nomination. As he puts it, the people without the clout love him. The son of a mail carrier -- all he needs is $20 million in order to run. He then attacks the Republican Party for changing the nomination process into "Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous."

Great line. Great guy.

A Postal Service commercial, a GE commercial on jet engines "that run like pure poetry" (while making a bombing run over Baghdad, we wonder?), a Porsche/Mobil Oil co-commercial aimed at Gucci Gulch lobbyists, a D'Amato attack commercial, a Schumer Attack commercial followed.

Russert than turned the topic to hot races around the country with David Broder, Charlie Cook, Alan Rothenberg and Gwen Ifill.

Barbara Boxer (D-CA) stays in, said the panel, and Carol Moseley-Braun (D) is out. Kentucky: The closest race in the country -- the panel says Bunning the Republican. In Nevada, the panel except for Broder and Ifill say Harry Reid (D) stays in. In New York, everyone but Broder said Schumer. In North Carolina, Faircloth is out. Thank the Lord for small favors! New York and North Carolina will be big wins for Democrats. South Carolina: Fritz Hollings (D) stays in. "The Ox is in the Ditch!" Washington State: Patty Murray (D) gets it! Wisconsin: Russ Feingold turned down big money support and thus Feingold loses to Mark Neuman (R). Russ Feingold was the last hope for campaign finance reform -- he loses by making himself a martyr.

And that was it for Meet the Press.

This Week

"The election home stretch turns nasty, partisan, and expensive," said Sam Donaldson, showing clips for last-minute ads run by the Dems and GOP.

Cokie Roberts opened with a piece on the congressional race Cincinnati -- and the problems facing both House candidates for the first district in Ohio. The Democrat, Roxanne Qualls (who is also mayor of Cincinnati), is emphasizing education; Steve Chabot, incumbent Republican, decries the "huge Washington bureaucracy." Both are facing a weak turnout. Qualls brought in African-American leaders to help drum up turnout, Chabot had Bob Dole stumping for him.

Sam Donaldson welcomed the two party campaign chairmen from the House -- DCCC Chairman Martin Frost (D-TX) and John Linder (R-GA) to what would be the only segment worth mention, despite the fact that these two guests were hardly A-list public affairs guests! Some not-so-random comments follow.

Linder on the negative GOP ad campaign: "I think it's time to address the President [and his issues.]" A lie -- the ads attack the President's character but not the issues!

Frost nailed Linder for having OPPOSED the ads a couple weeks ago, and now suddenly being a cheerleader for the ads.

Linder: "They're holding press conferences whining about them!... Clinton's been lying all year about Social Security." Seems every key GOPer was saying "Democrats are whining about the ads." No coincidence, that's for certain.

Frost was smiling in his reply: "The Republicans are desperate not to talk about Social Security [or the] 'Patient's Bill of Rights.' "

Again, Linder mimicked a tactic used by DeLay on Fox News Sunday, saying "He's outlined the differences between our parties" then spouting a barrage of issues and the Democrat solution -- and he sounded like a Dem!

Who is coordinating this strategy? It's embarrassing. The GOP would be wise to "lose" their House leadership real fast -- but we doubt they will.

Linder said that the attack ads were tested "on soft Democrats and independents and that's who we want to energize."

And they will -- to vote Democrat!

Frost mentioned twice that Gingrich made the decision to run the ads -- and Linder claimed that the news story reporting it was "based on a leak from an overexuberant GOP aide."

An accurate leak, we believe.

The remainder of the show dealt with specific contests with the usual gang of idiots (George Will, George Stephanopoulos, Bill Kristol) pontificating on the prospective outcomes.

The first race discussed was the New York Schumer/D'Amato Senatorial Steel Cage Death Match -- you'd think they'd save best for last! Sam held up the New York Daily News and New York Post, showing polls predicting different winners (the Post picking D'Amato). George Stephanopoulos: "They're both wrong -- Schumer by 5 percent." Cokie: "Pataki could make a difference" (implying that D'Amato rides coattails). Sam brought up the same "stake through the heart" comment cited by Fred Barnes on FNS. Kristol: "If you had to bet on anyone to break a rule in politics it's Al D'Amato." George Will: "Pataki has no significant opposition." Such erudition, George -- we NEVER would have been able to tell otherwise!

Sam mentioned that the Daily News had endorsed Schumer, the Post D'Amato.

Boxer/Fong for California Senate -- Will: "If she can win, this is very significant." George Stephanopoulos said that Matt Fong mishandled his own campaign -- we say he was being kind; Fong could have taken this race if not for significant blunders. Bill Kristol raised the issue of California races won a day later on absentee ballots, and GS mentioned that GOPers are more likely to absentee vote than Dems -- reassuring words for GOP "true believers" who may be dissuaded from voting because of Fong's problems.

Here's how they rack up the Senate totals after Election Day:
Cokie: GOP gains 1
George Will: GOP gains 2
Steph: GOP gains 2 at best!
Bill: GOP gains 4
Sam: GOP gains 2
George and Bill tried throughout to put the best face on shattered GOP expectations -- so, for that matter, did Sam.

When they turned to Governor's races, Sam began by saying "I'm tempted to begin with Minnesota and Jesse 'the Body' Ventura" -- but on to California.

We wish he'd talked only about the Minnesota race -- this race is being scrutinized more carefully by the two major parties than any other race as a barometer for changes in the "Third Party" weather. Ventura is running on the reform Party slate -- but like many other Reformers has expressed open skepticism about whether Perot should be allowed to run what has been his circus until now. And Ventura's celebrity status -- former professional wrestler and more recently a film actor, talk show host and mayor -- may generate a significant increase in voter turnout.

On the California race, Cokie expressed surprise at how well the bland Democrat Gray Davis is doing in the polls: "His name is eponymous."

Predictions about Minnesota were all over the map: Kristol predicted the Republican wins, Sam picked Democrat Humphrey, and Steph's observation -- the success of Ventura shows that there is "an outside strength" and an outsider, like Bill Bradley, a former athlete, could well influence the 2000 election -- was correct on the former but a bit of a stretch on the latter. We don't think Bradley stands much of a chance as an independent.

Cokie declared "Soccer moms" a thing of the past and claimed "The waitress moms are mad at Bill Clinton."

How the hell would she know? As if Cokie would even want to be seen with a waitress mom -- another Sabbath gasbag putting words and opinions in the mouths of people she would likely not want to be caught dead with.

But Cokie was right about a problem the Christian Coalition is starting to run into: "A lot of ministers have said 'not in my church you don't!'" Watch for this to become a major story in the 2000 election -- you can count on it.

Sam finally turned to "Paula Jones -- she gets her million if the suit is settled -- Bob Bennett will have to settle it by tomorrow."

We say Sam's wrong, and Bob Bennett would be smart to tell all of Jones's lawyers, retainers and hangers-on that Hirschfeld poisoned any hope of a settlement.

After the final commercial break, we had a huge laugh when Sam had to backpedal on the Schumer "endorsement" from the Daily News -- they actually endorsed D'Amato!

We were laughing out loud. my, how things have changed since the courtly David Brinkley retired -- then sold his soul to ADM.

We bet there's an opening at ABC's DC bureau for a news researcher. We say they should be advertising for new producers, anchors and bookers.

IGNORED -- ALMOST!

Only CNN Late Edition saw fit to comment on Ken Starr's latest problem -- in the form of a court order released by Judge Norma Holloway Johnson last week naming a special master to investigate possible felony violations by Starr or his staff.

And the comments were brief -- used as a springboard to discuss how the elections might affect impeachment.

We think the pundits -- and many others -- will regret not having paid enough attention to this story early on.

-- The Editors